Season Predictions: End of Season review

The football season is over for another year, but back in August the iThinkUnited season predictions were published on the blog. In January the blog underwent a mid-season revision of those predictions. Now at the end of the season, here is a review of how those predictions matched up to reality:

Cup Winners

COMMUNITY SHIELD:

August prediction: Manchester City

Mid-season prediction: N/A

Reality: Won by Manchester City

City did indeed win the community shield over ten-man Chelsea as a show of intent for the coming season.

CAPITAL ONE CUP:

August prediction: Manchester United

Mid-season prediction: Chelsea

Reality: Won by Swansea City

United unluckily fell to Chelsea in the fourth round, who themselves were knocked out by Swansea in the semi-final, with the Welsh team going on to claim the crown.

FA CUP:

August prediction: Liverpool

Mid-season prediction: Liverpool

Reality: Won by Wigan Athletic

A foolish bet on Liverpool was proved wrong as Wigan Athletic were the surprise winners.

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE:

August prediction: Real Madrid

Mid-season prediction: Real Madrid

Reality: Won by Bayern Munich

Even Jose Mourinho still can’t weave his magic for Madrid in Europe. Madrid were knocked out by Borussia Dortmund in the semi-finals, who succumbed to the impressive Bayern Munich in the final.

Premier League

CHAMPIONS:

August prediction: Manchester United

Mid-season prediction: Manchester United

Reality: Won by Manchester United

United’s unassailable points lead at the top of the table made this one of the dominant title wins.

TOP FOUR:

August prediction: 2-City, 3-Arsenal, 4-Chelsea

Mid-season prediction: 2-City, 3-Arsenal, 4-Chelsea

Reality: 2-City , 3-Chelsea , 4-Arsenal

Just a couple of points away from reality in the prediction. Nevertheless, the predicted top four did become reality.

RELEGATED:
August prediction: Southampton, Aston Villa, Reading

Mid-season prediction: Southampton, QPR, Reading

Reality: QPR, Reading, Wigan

Wigan almost looked like pulling off the great escape, but in the end were dragged down along with QPR and Reading.

PLAYER OF THE YEAR:

August prediction: Nani

Mid-season prediction: Gareth Bale

Reality: Gareth Bale

Whilst you can’t doubt Nani had the potential to be player of the season, he couldn’t have been further from the award by May. By far the worst prediction of the lot, Nani has had a torrid season. Gareth Bale’s enormous impact on Tottenham secured him the award ahead of Robin Van Persie and Juan Mata.

TOP SCORER:

August prediction: Wayne Rooney

Mid-season prediction: Robin van Persie

Reality: Robin van Persie

A late suspension for Luis Suarez meant Van Persie could go on with ease to become the season’s top scorer for the second year in a row.

Other Predictions

BEST SIGNING:

August prediction: Eden Hazard

Mid-season prediction: Michu

Reality: Robin van Persie

Hazard, Michu and Van Persie have all been fantastic signings, as have the likes of Moussa Dembele for Tottenham and Santi Cazorla for Arsenal. Van Persie’s impact on United’s title win just edges him to victory in this category however.

SURPRISE TEAM:

August prediction: Fulham

Mid-season prediction: Fulham

Reality: West Ham United

To call Fulham the real surprise team of the year would be wrong. A poor finish to the season leaves some big questions at Craven Cottage. The ‘surprise team’ section was meant in a positive sense, and therefore the impressive final positioning of recently promoted West Ham United just about wins them the award.

FLOP TEAM:

August prediction: Newcastle United

Mid-season prediction: Newcastle United

Reality: Newcastle United

Never looking near their 5^th place finish of last season, Newcastle have certainly flopped, and been lucky to narrowly avoid relegation.

Results

Original Predictions: 3/12

Mid-season review: 4/11 (minus the community shield)

Analysis: West Bromwich Albion 5 Manchester United 5

Premier League, Sunday 19^th May 2013

The last game of the Premier League season for Manchester United ended in an astonishing 5-5 scoreline. Shinji Kagawa, Alex Büttner, Robin van Persie and Javier Hernandez all scored, whilst United were also gifted an own goal. A mostly commanding performance turned into a leaky shambles late on that meant Sir Alex Ferguson’s last ever game in charge didn’t finish in a victory. Here’s some analysis:

Wing-backs

A means of attacking success, particularly in the first-half, came from United’s wing-backs. Lining up in a 4-1-2-1-2 (diamond) formation, there was a particular reliance on the advancing full-backs to provide width, and Antonio Valencia and Alex Büttner duly obliged. There was tangible evidence of this success through a goal for Büttner and some assists for Valencia. West Brom were preoccupied with the loaded threat United were providing in the centre, and struggled to deal with this extra wide threat.

Defensive shambles

This game was somewhat of a defensive shambles, as United let a 5-2 lead slip in the last 10 minutes. The introduction of the retiring Paul Scholes was a contributing factor, with the Englishmen struggling to keep up with the pace of the game in any defensive capacity. United’s midfield display also slowly deteriorated throughout the game as a whole, providing less protection to the back four. Tom Cleverley and Anderson tired, whilst Michael Carrick’s influence waned after a commanding start. The back four, aside from the impressive Jonny Evans, all had poor defensive games in which they struggled to cope with attacks from the Baggies at times. Should this match had mattered then this defensive shambles would be a worry. As it is, it was less than ideal, but nothing more.

Going Forward

United now face a summer of change as David Moyes takes over as manager, something that will have an unsettling effect on pre-season for the first time in 26 years. The likes of David de Gea, Rio Ferdinand, Michael Carrick, Robin van Persie and others can be pleased with their season, whilst the likes of Antonio Valencia and Anders Lindegaard will need to improve for next year. United’s next competitive game will be on 11^th August in the Community Shield.

Ratings

[4-1-2-1-2]: Lindegaard-5, Valencia-6, Jones-5, Evans-7, Büttner-6, Carrick-7, Anderson-6, Cleverley-6, Kagawa-7, Hernandez-7, Van Persie-7

*Man of the match

(Giggs-6, Scholes-5, Ferdinand-6)

End of Season Review

Manchester United’s season has undoubtedly been a success in that the Premier League trophy was reclaimed. There were disappointments in the cup competitions, but this was not to overshadow the achievement of United’s 20^th league title.

The first half of the season consisted of a series of thrilling comebacks. United secured themselves defensively from thereon as they went on to win the title. The season ended with sadness as Sir Alex Ferguson and Paul Scholes retired, but there is plenty to look forward to in the future.

Below are the iThinkUnited end of season awards:

Players

These awards are based on the iThinkUnited player ratings system (see below).

BEST PLAYER:

Rio Ferdinand

A model of consistency and excellence, Rio Ferdinand wins the player of the season award. David de Gea, Rafael, Michael Carrick, Jonny Evans and Robin van Persie all follow him very closely.

WORST PLAYER:

Alex Büttner

Appears harsh on the surface, but mainly average performances combined with a small amount of appearances mean Büttner’s average rating is the worst of any United player with over 10 appearances. Antonio Valencia and Nani are very close behind.

BEST TEAM:

De Gea, Rafael, Ferdinand, Evans, Evra, Carrick, Cleverley, Welbeck, Rooney, van Persie, Hernandez

Matches

BEST MATCH:

Manchester City 2 Manchester United 3

There were some extraordinary matches over the course of the season, but this Manchester derby win clinched in the final minute has to go as the most dramatic and fantastic match of the season. Had United beaten Real Madrid then perhaps that would’ve topped it for sheer atmosphere and occasion. Oh what could’ve been.

WORST MATCH:

Manchester United 0 CFR Cluj 1

In the context of the season, United have performed worse than this game, but if you had to miss one United game this year, it would be this. A dead-rubber as far as United were concerned, they never got going, and eventually lost to the Romanians. As boring as they come.

Goals

BEST GOAL SCORED:

Robin van Persie v Aston Villa

This goal was truly magnificent. On a night that United sealed the Premier League title, Robin van Persie’s hat-trick felt almost like he intended to remind the Reds who they had to thank for the title win. A sumptuous lofted pass from Wayne Rooney was hit first time by Van Persie’s left-foot, and into the back of the net. Wonderful.

WORST GOAL CONCEDED:

Adam le Fondre for Reading

There are unfortunately many contenders for this award, but after weeks of lessons not learnt, calamitous defending at the Madejski stadium was hard to believe. Lost at a set-piece, Le Fondre will rarely score an easier goal.

Moments

MOST ENTHRALLING MOMENT:

Ferguson’s crowd rouser

Old Trafford was rocking on March 5^th. United were heading for the Champions League quarter-finals at the expense of European heavyweights Real Madrid. It was a truly special night. Until Nani was then sent off. We all know what happened next, but the moment of exhilaration experienced when Sir Alex Ferguson attempted to rouse the crowd in order to lift the team was an extraordinary moment. Old Trafford has never been louder. Possibly.

MOST DISAPPOINTING MOMENT:

Nani’s red card

With every high comes a low. United were set to beat Real Madrid and everything felt like it was meant to be; it was one of those special nights. It was probably all down to Nani’s red card that the script wasn’t obeyed that night. A heart-breaker for any United fan, and a final lost chance for Ferguson in Europe.

TOP MISCALLENOUS MOMENT:

Sir Alex Ferguson’s retirement

Hardly a ‘best’ moment for anyone, but this has to be top in terms of pure magnitude and reaction to an event. Tears were privately shed by many as Ferguson announced his retirement. The country reacted and applauded to a magnificent man and manager, the likes of which will never be seen again.

iThinkUnited Player Ratings 2012/2013

This table is calculated using the average ratings for each Manchester United player this season. The ratings were given after each match.

Players to have achieved less than ten appearances have been left out in order  to provide more accurate ratings for the season (i.e. Federico Macheda’s average of 5.6 is irrelevant considering he only made three substitute appearances this season.) It is also important to remember that players with many substitute appearances will often have had less time on the pitch to make a mark, and therefore will be nearer to the average ‘6’ rating.

PLAYERS:

Name                   Position    Appearances                                     Average rating

                                             (Including as substitute. Substitute in brackets)

Rio Ferdinand                 DEF                35 (3)                                                                   6.914…

David de Gea                 GK                  41                                                                         6.902…

Rafael da Silva               DEF                40 (2)                                                                   6.85

Jonny Evans                 DEF                29 (2)                                                                    6.793…

Michael Carrick             MID                46 (4)                                                                     6.783…

Robin van Persie          ATT                48 (8)                                                                    6.771…

Nemanja Vidic               DEF                23 (1)                                                                     6.739…

Phil Jones                     DEF                 24 (4)                                                                    6.667…

Javier Hernandez         ATT                36 (13)                                                                   6.639…

Patrice Evra                 DEF                 42                                                                           6.595…

Tom Cleverley              MID                32 (4)                                                                      6.594…

Wayne Rooney            ATT                37 (6)                                                                     6.568…

Chris Smalling              DEF                22 (5)                                                                      6.5

Anderson                     MID               26 (9)                                                                      6.5

Shinji Kagawa              ATT               26 (4)                                                                      6.5

Danny Welbeck           ATT               40 (17)                                                                    6.5

Darren Fletcher           MID                10 (3)                                                                       6.4

Ryan Giggs                  MID                32 (13)                                                                     6.281…

Ashley Young              MID                23 (5)                                                                       6.261…

Paul Scholes                 MID                20 (11)                                                                    6.2                

Anders Lindegaard     GK                  13                                                                          6.154…

Nani                             MID                 21 (5)                                                                      6.048…

Antonio Valencia         MID                40 (11)                                                                     6.025

Alex Büttner                DEF                13 (1)                                                                       6

Analysis: Manchester United 2 Swansea City 1

Premier League, Sunday 12^th May 2013

This match was a truly special occasion, but not just for the football. Manchester United were presented with the Premier League trophy as Sir Alex Ferguson presided over his final game at Old Trafford. Javier Hernandez gave United the lead, before Rio Ferdinand scored a late winner after Swansea had equalised. Here’s some thoughts from the day:

 The Ginger Prince

Sir Alex Ferguson is not the only one retiring this summer-Paul Scholes is also, at his second attempt. The English midfielder played for the first time since January against Swansea in what his likely to be his last game. Evidence of his forward bursts from yesteryear, and his accomplished passing, were both on show. There were also a few typical, but fair crunching tackles from the ‘Ginger Prince’. Scholes also showed why it is probably his time to retire though with a lacklustre display physically. Conserving his energy, Scholes was of little use defensively and often let Swansea players run past him with ease. Scholes is, and also will remain, a legend. The time has come for this great servant to say goodbye, but Manchester United fans will never forget the memories he has left behind.

Fergie Psychology

Even on the day of his official farewell, Ferguson still managed to demonstrate how his psychology has helped United win so many titles. In his speech, the Scot reminded the players of the expectations placed upon them, and how they must not let themselves down. This was a great motivator and reminder, and perhaps gave a glimpse into his pre-match and half-time team talks. After the game Ferguson also hinted to the disillusioned Wayne Rooney that if he was playing at his best he would’ve been more involved at times this season-another great example of a way to remind a player how good he can be, and a way to spur him on. United will certainly miss the wisdom and encouragement of Sir Alex.

Going Forward

Going forward Manchester United approach a new era, with the exits of Ferguson and Scholes and who knows who else. It was fitting that United should beat Swansea with a decent team display. Patrice Evra in particular had a marvellous game up and down the left side. United now go away to West Brom for their final game of the season; Ferguson’s last hurrah and the end of an era.

Ratings

[4-4-1-1]: De Gea-7, Jones-7, Ferdinand-7, Vidic-7, Evra-8*, Kagawa-7, Carrick-7, Scholes-6, Welbeck-6, Van Persie-7, Hernandez-7

*Man of the match

(Anderson-7, Valencia-6, Giggs-6)

Even his retirement was the best

When Sir Alex Ferguson announced his retirement a few days ago, it was hard to escape the emotion and drama of the occasion. The greatest manager of all time was to call it a day. But even in his retirement, this unrivalled icon of the footballing world looks to have displayed one of his famous attributes.

The man who managed a club famous for their comebacks, famous for their relentless pursuit of victory in the face of a ticking clock, had got it spot on with his timing again. Fergie’s time was his right time.

Escaping the cynical, and quite frankly disturbing thought, that the great Scot was pushed out of his managerial seat by Manchester United’s reviled owners, Ferguson’s retirement schedule appears almost impeccable. The only sense in which his retirement wouldn’t be perfect is if he were to stay on another season and win the treble. But ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’ about the future are no good in this game. Only the reality matters. And Ferguson seems to have got another mammoth decision spot on.

It is hard to entertain the thought that retirement prior to this summer would’ve been sensible. Anything pre-2000 would’ve been rash. Ferguson had brought the club up from the ashes and transformed them into a league-dominating and then treble-winning phenomenon. Only after that particular summit could it be said that perhaps the Scot have achieved all he could.

And so his retirement plan came in 2002. But what a relief he didn’t call it a day. The club had reached a peak and was on a (small) downward spiral. The treble-winning side was dismantling without any clear youthful era breaking through. Yes Ferguson had achieved great things, but to go then may have destabilised the club for many years.

His eventual, and remarkable, rebuilding of the squad into another European-conquering force could’ve signalled another retirement window for Ferguson. 2008 was a stellar year. But what if Ferguson had gone? Cristiano Ronaldo and Carlos Tevez were soon to depart, Wayne Rooney was soon to voice concerns, Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic were beginning to suffer long-term injuries, and several older players were on the brink of retirement. Ferguson’s exit could’ve coincided with the utter dismantling of a great squad. To retire then could’ve been destroying.

What about since? It is fair to say that no year post-2008 has been vintage. But United have very slowly and steadily rebuilt into what is now a thriving squad. Over time youth has been bought and promoted. The likes of Tom Cleverley, Danny Welbeck, Rafael, Javier Hernandez, Shinji Kagawa, Jonny Evans, Phil Jones and David de Gea could be instrumental in the coming years. Meanwhile the core of Michael Carrick, Rio Ferdinand, Nemanja Vidic, Wayne Rooney, and now Robin van Persie are the backbone of this evolving squad.

Even to leave last summer would’ve left a young team with little winning experience and a long road ahead of them. But the season of 2012/2013 has seen an immense progression from Manchester United. Ferguson leaves a team of established champions, with all the ingredients and youthful zest to go on and dominate.

To those who classify Ferguson’s great teams, I would say there are four. The title-winning side of the early sides characterised by Cantona, the treble-winning side, the 2008-conquerors, and now a fourth team; a fourth team he has moulded and tutored, but will now have the potential to reach their ultimate pinnacle in a new era.

A hip operation and more family-time await Sir Alex, but the state he has left Manchester United in could not be more perfect. A culture of family, youth, stability, winners, and a squad bursting with potential and ability remains in place despite his parting. A better time for the Scot to bow out there never was, and probably never would’ve been. Even in retirement, he has proved the master.

Analysis: Manchester United 0 Chelsea 1

Premier League, Sunday 5^th May 2013

Manchester United suffered a frustrating loss to Chelsea in a dull game at Old Trafford on Sunday. Juan Mata scored the only goal late on before Rafael was sent off for a kick on the infuriating David Luiz. This game will not live long in the memory of many Manchester United fans, and showcased an edgeless team performance. Here’s some analysis:

Positional confusion

There was some notable confusion between Jonny Evans and Phil Jones at times during the match. Phil Jones was playing in the defensive midfielder position, aiming to halt Chelsea counter-attacks and break up their play. It is a position Michael Carrick and Darren Fletcher have already operated in against the Blues this season. The frequent, visible in-game debates between Evans and Jones however showed some positional error between the two of them. Jones would often leave the high ball for Evans behind him to deal with, whilst Evans would be looking to sweep up the play after Jones had dealt with the ball. Reasons for this could have simply been miscommunication, but also the fact that Evans was playing on the right side of defence which is different to his usual left side. Jones was also probably confused after having played central defence and central midfield in recent weeks; he never seemed to comfortably adapt to playing in between the two against Chelsea.

On the fringe

After limited opportunities this side of Christmas, Anders Lindegaard, Tom Cleverley, and Anderson all featured in the starting line-up, with neither particularly impressing. Anderson was at times his usual driving presence, but again showed his liabilities by not getting ball-side when Chelsea counter-attacked. The Brazilian also failed to complete 90 minutes, something he has only down an incredible 18 times in his six seasons at United. Tom Cleverley was often tidy, but largely ineffective. He is a good energetic foil for Michael Carrick, and usually offers dynamism in possession, but he was largely off the pace against Chelsea, something that could have been expected after limited opportunities recently. Anders Lindegaard showed his inferiority in terms of distribution to David de Gea, and an overall decent performance was perhaps marred by conceding late on to a goal that some better goalkeepers would have saved.

Going Forward

This result meant United’s poor record against Chelsea continues, now having only won one from five against them this season. None of United’s fringe players coming into the team particularly excelled in an understandably drab encounter. The Reds will now be looking to give a good account of themselves as champions in their final two games.

Ratings

[4-1-4-1]: Lindegaard-6, Rafael-7*, Evans-6, Vidic-6, Evra-6, Jones-6, Anderson-6, Cleverley-6, Valencia-4, Giggs-6, Van Persie-6

*Man of the match

(Rooney-6, Büttner-6, Hernandez-6)